META · Nasdaq · Services-Computer Programming, Data Processing, Etc.

Meta Platforms, Inc.

Research memo on Meta Platforms: what it sells and where the money sits per daily active person, the 2026 capex surge and negative free cash flow quarter, competitors, 2030 scenarios, a 31 Oct 2026 valuation with per-share scenario values, the Class C recapitalisation and October equity raises, and a leadership, insider and promises-versus-delivery review.

What we have on this company
Information	Status	As of
Detailed research report	Yes	2026-10-31
Rule-based screens	Scored, on no current shortlist	2026-10-31
Valuation	Model 452.07 (-26% vs price); Below fair value · +28% to USD 787	2026-10-31, 2026-10-30
Chart-pattern read	No call (target hit)	2026-10-30
Paper portfolio	Held since 2026-09-30	2026-10-30

Research

Detailed report · reviewed 2026-10-31 · financial baseline Q3 2026

A 26% growth ad machine that now spends more than it earns in cash, and is funding the gap with new stock

Quality franchise priced near our base case. At USD 614.99 (30 Oct 2026) Meta trades at about 21.6x 2026 GAAP EPS and 6.1x sales; our scenario values are USD 304 bust, 665 base, 1,088 boom. Revenue grew 26% in Q3 2026 but capex of USD 135 to 145B turned Q3 free cash flow negative, buybacks stopped, and October brought USD 37.5B of equity-linked raises plus a non-voting Class C share effective 19 Jan 2027. Morningstar USD 850 (secondary report), MarketBeat consensus USD 833. Q4 2026 results, expected late January 2027, are the next test.

Reviewed 31 Oct 2026 · IBKR ratings pending · fact audit done 31 Oct 2026

Read the full report →

Scores

Deterministic rule outputs, snapshot 2026-10-31 · price 614.99 on 2026-10-30. Not recommendations.

Method	Score	Inputs as of	Flags
Graham Defensive	54	2025-12-31	stale input
Magic Formula	n/a
Momentum	50	2026-10-30
Insider	0	2026-10-30
Buffett Quality	83	2026-06-30	stale input
Lynch GARP	76	2026-06-30	stale input
Graham Enterprising	60	2026-06-30	stale input
Piotroski F-Score	33		partial, missing 7

Every input with its filing: full score sheet · research packet (JSON) · Markdown · SEC filings.

Valuation

Model estimate from SEC filings · calculated 2026-10-31 from the 2026-10-30 close · filings through 2026-10-22

452.07 -26% vs price

Range 237.31 to 690.15, 3 of 3 methods agree. A labelled model estimate, not a price target. Method.

Research fair-value comparison · latest source 2026-10-30

Below fair value · +28% to USD 787

Average of the dated sources shown in the report, with the price chart. Open the fair-value section.

Charts

Chart-pattern read from a notebook citing Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns · forecast data to 2026-10-30 · 2 runs kept

No call: the pattern is target hit.

Open the chart → Forecast journal

Portfolio activity Paper

Simulated $50k paper account, not an investable fund · data as of the 2026-10-30 close

Held: 7.26 shares at an average cost of 728.33, 7.7% of the account, opened 2026-09-30; unrealized -15.56%.

Date	Action	Shares	Price
2026-10-15	BUY	0.7669	725.51
2026-09-30	BUY	6.494	728.66

See the position in the paper portfolio · all activity