Tesla, Inc.
Overview
Research memo on Tesla after Q3 2026: what it sells by segment, where a Cybercab Robotaxi fleet sits and the money one fleet earns, competitors and TAM, 2030 scenarios, a 30 Oct 2026 valuation with per-share scenario values, and a leadership, insider and revenue-quality review.
| Information | Status | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Detailed research report | Yes | 2026-10-31 |
| Rule-based screens | Scored, on no current shortlist | 2026-10-31 |
| Valuation | Model 28.69 (-93% vs price); Above fair value · -10% to USD 360 | 2026-10-31, 2026-10-30 |
| Chart-pattern read | Up +8% to target, Double bottom (confirmed) | 2026-10-30 |
| Paper portfolio | Never held |
Research
A flat car business funding a USD 20B-plus bet on autonomy, priced as if the bet has already paid
Expensive on everything but the autonomy option. At USD 399.81 (30 Oct 2026) the EV of about USD 1.54T is 15x trailing sales and about 490x trailing GAAP earnings; Q3 2026 revenue was flat and deliveries fell 2% while capex heads above USD 20B for 2026. Our scenario values are USD 38 bust, 212 base, 578 boom. Morningstar fair value USD 475 (secondary source), MarketBeat consensus USD 414.51; three-source average USD 359.61, 10.1% below the price. Annual meeting 3 Dec 2026, Q4 results expected late January 2027.
Reviewed 31 Oct 2026 · fact audit done 31 Oct 2026 · IBKR broker data pending
Scores
| Method | Score | Inputs as of | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Defensive | 40 | 2025-12-31 | partial, missing 5 stale input |
| Magic Formula | 5 | 2025-09-30 | stale input |
| Momentum | 33 | 2026-10-30 | |
| Insider | 0 | 2026-10-30 | |
| Buffett Quality | 28 | 2026-09-30 | |
| Lynch GARP | 48 | 2026-09-30 | |
| Graham Enterprising | 55 | 2026-09-30 | |
| Piotroski F-Score | 44 | partial, missing 5 |
Every input with its filing: full score sheet · research packet (JSON) · Markdown · SEC filings.
Valuation
28.69 -93% vs price
Range 23.43 to 30.44, 3 of 3 methods agree. A labelled model estimate, not a price target. Method.
Above fair value · -10% to USD 360
Average of the dated sources shown in the report, with the price chart. Open the fair-value section.
Charts
Up +8% · Double bottom, confirmed
Book base rate 95% that such a breakout keeps going; 66% reached the full target. Historical frequencies, not a probability for this stock.