Apple Inc.
Overview
Research memo on Apple: revenue mix and where profit sits, a trailing money ladder, competitors, fiscal 2030 bust/base/boom scenarios, a 31 Oct 2026 valuation against Morningstar and consensus, and a leadership, insider and revenue-quality review after the Ternus succession.
| Information | Status | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Detailed research report | Yes | 2026-10-31 |
| Rule-based screens | On 1 shortlist: Top Piotroski F-Score | 2026-10-31 |
| Valuation | Model 156.65 (-54% vs price); Above fair value · -16% to USD 289 | 2026-10-31, 2026-10-30 |
| Chart-pattern read | Up +13% to target, Ascending triangle (confirmed) | 2026-10-30 |
| Paper portfolio | Traded before, not held now | 2026-10-30 |
Research
A record iPhone cycle, a new CEO, and a price that already assumes both continue
Quality compounder priced above all three fair-value anchors. At USD 344.63 (30 Oct 2026) Apple trades at 39x FY26 consensus EPS with USD 62B net cash. Our values today: bust 149, base 251, boom 366. Morningstar 285 (wide moat), S&P Global consensus 332.39; average fair value 289.33, 16% below the price (red). Q3 FY26 revenue +16%, iPhone +22%, gross margin 50.1% incl. ~2 pts tariff refunds. John Ternus CEO since 1 Sep 2026. Next test: Q4 FY26 results on 2 Nov 2026.
Reviewed 31 Oct 2026 · IBKR ratings pending
Scores
On the current shortlists: Top Piotroski F-Score (#12).
| Method | Score | Inputs as of | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Defensive | 40 | 2025-09-27 | stale input |
| Magic Formula | 61 | 2025-12-27 | stale input |
| Momentum | 80 | 2026-10-30 | |
| Insider | 0 | 2026-10-30 | |
| Buffett Quality | 85 | 2026-06-27 | stale input |
| Lynch GARP | 50 | 2026-06-27 | stale input |
| Graham Enterprising | 35 | 2026-06-27 | stale input |
| Piotroski F-Score | 89 |
Every input with its filing: full score sheet · research packet (JSON) · Markdown · SEC filings.
Valuation
156.65 -54% vs price
Range 35.17 to 233.30, 3 of 3 methods agree. A labelled model estimate, not a price target. Method.
Above fair value · -16% to USD 289
Average of the dated sources shown in the report, with the price chart. Open the fair-value section.
Charts
Up +13% · Ascending triangle, confirmed
Book base rate 88% that such a breakout keeps going. Historical frequencies, not a probability for this stock.
Portfolio activity Paper
Not held now.
| Date | Action | Shares | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | SELL | 17.31 | 331.86 |
| 2026-07-17 | SELL | 1.691 | 331.53 |
| 2026-07-10 | BUY | 19 | 313.72 |