Sivers Semiconductors
Overview
An investment memo on the SIVE thesis: where the Sivers laser sits in an AI data center and what reaches it from a $40B campus, competitors and a ~0.3% share, 2030 scenarios against consensus, a dated valuation with per-share scenario values, and a leadership, letters and NRE review.
| Information | Status | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Detailed research report | Yes | 2026-10-22 |
| Rule-based screens | Not in the screened S&P 500 set | |
| Valuation | Above fair value · -36% to SEK 15.31 | 2026-10-21 |
| Chart-pattern read | No call (target hit) | 2026-10-27 |
| Paper portfolio | Never held |
Research
The opportunity is real; the revenue ramp still has to arrive
Commercialization watchlist. The 20 October 2026 LiDAR production orders are the first delivered milestone of the Q2 letter (USD 53 to 138M lifecycle potential, shipments from Q4 2026). At about SEK 23 the price already discounts the base case; the single-analyst consensus (LSEG Sell, target SEK 7.70; Morningstar quantitative fair value SEK 16.23) does not support it, and the boom case needs CPO volume from 2028. Photonics shrank 23% in H1 2026; the Q3 report on 26 November 2026 is the first hard numerical test.
Reviewed 22 Oct 2026 · broker data and LiDAR orders recorded
Valuation
Above fair value · -36% to SEK 15.31
Average of the dated sources shown in the report, with the price chart. Open the fair-value section.
Charts
No call: the pattern is target hit.