X-FAB Silicon Foundries SE
Overview
An investment memo on Serenity's XFAB thesis: what X-FAB sells and where its wafer sits in the AI optics and SiC chains, a one-campus money ladder, competitors and a ~0% silicon photonics share, 2030 scenarios against consensus, a 22 Oct 2026 valuation with per-share scenario values, IBKR broker and ratings data, and a leadership, letters and order-book review.
| Information | Status | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Detailed research report | Yes | 2026-10-22 |
| Rule-based screens | Not in the screened S&P 500 set | |
| Valuation | Below fair value · +67% to EUR 8.56 | 2026-10-22 |
| Chart-pattern read | No read | |
| Paper portfolio | Never held |
Research
Cheap assets, empty fabs: the photonics option costs little but pays late
Asset-value watchlist. At EUR 5.14 the shares trade at 0.75x book with an enterprise value below the USD 1.1B 2023 to 2025 capex programme, no dilution since 2017 and grants funding the next capacity. The core foundry is shrinking (automotive -19%, utilisation 60%, backlog down four quarters, 2026 targets withdrawn), photonics revenue is about USD 6 to 7M with volume due in 2028 and no primary source for the Nvidia or Nokia link. Morningstar quant 5 stars (fair value EUR 8.44) and LSEG Buy (target EUR 7.74) sit above the price, but five of seven analysts are Hold and ISS EVA is Underweight. Scenario values today EUR 3.1 bust, 9.5 base, 20.8 boom. The Q3 report on 29 October 2026 is the first hard test.
Reviewed 22 Oct 2026 · broker data and fact audit recorded
Valuation
Below fair value · +67% to EUR 8.56
Average of the dated sources shown in the report, with the price chart. Open the fair-value section.