NICE Ltd.
Overview
A research memo on NICE: what CXone and Cognigy sell, where they sit in an enterprise contact centre, a one-centre money ladder that shows the seat-versus-AI trade, competitors, 2030 scenarios, a 31 Oct 2026 valuation with per-share values, and a leadership and revenue-quality review. IBKR ratings pending.
| Information | Status | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Detailed research report | Yes | 2026-10-31 |
| Rule-based screens | Not in the screened S&P 500 set | |
| Valuation | Below fair value · +23% to USD 140 | 2026-10-30 |
| Chart-pattern read | Up +20% to target, Double bottom (confirmed) | 2026-10-30 |
| Paper portfolio | Never held |
Research
Ten times earnings for the contact-centre cloud: does AI eat the seat?
Cheap, but cheap for a reason. At USD 113.76 (30 Oct 2026) NICE trades at about 10x its raised FY2026 non-GAAP EPS guide (11.06 to 11.26) and about 2.0x EV/sales, with no debt and USD 311M of buybacks in H1 2026. Cloud grows 12.6% (about 10% organic) and AI ARR is USD 362M, but non-GAAP operating margin fell five points to 25.3%, services shrink 11% and cloud net retention is 106%. The market prices a seat business that AI agents will shrink. Our base case is USD 118 (11x FY2027E EPS 11.80, one year at 10%), bust 67, boom 189; consensus target 132.77. The Q3 2026 report (date not yet confirmed by NICE; aggregators say 4, 12 or 13 November 2026) is the next hard test.
Drafted and fact-audited 31 Oct 2026 · IBKR ratings pending
Valuation
Below fair value · +23% to USD 140
Average of the dated sources shown in the report, with the price chart. Open the fair-value section.
Charts
Up +20% · Double bottom, confirmed
Book base rate 96% that such a breakout keeps going; 67% reached the full target. Historical frequencies, not a probability for this stock.