Aeva Technologies, Inc.
Overview
An investment memo on Serenity's AEVA thesis: what Aeva sells and where its sensor and laser sit in an autonomous truck, a one-program money ladder, competitors and TAM, 2030 scenarios against consensus, a 23 Oct 2026 valuation with per-share scenario values, IBKR broker data, and a leadership, insider and revenue-quality review.
| Information | Status | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Detailed research report | Yes | 2026-10-23 |
| Rule-based screens | Not in the screened S&P 500 set | |
| Valuation | Below fair value · +76% to USD 17.43 | 2026-10-22 |
| Chart-pattern read | No read | |
| Paper portfolio | Never held |
Research
Real FMCW programs, engineering-heavy revenue, and a Sivers link nobody has confirmed
Program watchlist. At USD 9.88 (22 Oct 2026) the EV of about USD 611M is 19x 2026 consensus sales and prices our base case (USD 9.2; bust 1.7, boom 28.3). 60% of H1 2026 revenue is engineering services and product revenue fell 39% in Q2; insiders sold about USD 20M after adopting 10b5-1 plans before the June raise, and the CFO left in September. Morningstar 3 stars, fair value USD 14.10; LSEG Buy, target USD 29. No primary source links Aeva to the Sivers LiDAR order. Q3 results on 4 Nov 2026 are the next test.
Reviewed 23 Oct 2026 · broker data and fact audit recorded
Valuation
Below fair value · +76% to USD 17.43
Average of the dated sources shown in the report, with the price chart. Open the fair-value section.