The Coca-Cola Company
A concentrate royalty at a full price: volume is back, the multiple already knows

Research date: 31 October 2026. Company: The Coca-Cola Company, Atlanta, Georgia. Listing: NYSE, KO. ISIN: US1912161007. CIK 0000021344. Reporting and share currency: USD (US GAAP). Latest financial period reviewed: third quarter ended 2 October 2026 (8-K earnings release 27 October 2026, 10-Q filed 28 October 2026). Material announcements reviewed through 31 October 2026. Capture window 11:00 to 12:30 Europe/Luxembourg on 31 October 2026 (captures stamped 2026-10-31T12:00+01:00 unless stated).

Tags used throughout: confirmed = company filing, release or primary source; est. = our arithmetic from confirmed inputs; speculated = sell-side, data vendor, press or search-snippet figure we could not open at source. Every figure carries the source's own date.

Investment memo: our current view

Quality compounder, priced for it. Coca-Cola is in its best operating stretch in years: organic revenue +10% in Q1, +6% in Q2 and +7% in Q3 2026, global unit case volume +3%, +5% and +5%, and full-year comparable EPS guidance raised three quarters in a row, from 7 to 8% in February to at least 11% on 27 October 2026 (confirmed, Q3 release). Free cash flow guidance went from about USD 12.4B to at least USD 13.0B. Zero Sugar volume grew 16% in Q3, and the 2026 FIFA World Cup helped Q2.

The price has moved with it. At USD 94.08 (30 October 2026 close, Yahoo chart API) the shares are near the 52-week high of USD 95.37, up about 40% on the 52-week low of USD 67.27, and trade at about 28x 2026 comparable EPS (est. USD 3.33) and about 3.2% free cash flow yield on guidance (est.). Morningstar (wide moat) moved its fair value to about USD 80 after Q3 (speculated: search snippet, page returns 403) and calls the shares slightly overvalued; the sell side is warmer, with a USD 97.26 MarketBeat consensus target on 24 analysts and seven target raises on 28 October.

Our base case, 7% comparable EPS growth to 2031 and a 24x exit multiple discounted at 8%, gives USD 86 per share today; bust USD 65, boom USD 104. The average of Morningstar, consensus and our base case is USD 87.75, 6.7% below the price (red on the meter). The risk is less the business than the starting multiple, plus four specific items: a 2027 revenue base about 8% smaller after bottler sales (company note), North America volume flat in Q3 with the North America president gone, an open IRS tax dispute, and a Costa sale that stalled at about half the 2018 price.

Next hard test: Q4 and full-year 2026 results with the first 2027 guidance, expected around 9 to 10 February 2027 (est. from the prior-year pattern; not yet confirmed by the company).

Thesis underwriting

Listing and timestamps

What the business actually sells

Coca-Cola mostly sells concentrate and syrup to about 200 bottling partners, who make, package and distribute the drinks and sell them to retailers. The company owns the brands (Coca-Cola, Zero Sugar, Sprite, Fanta, Powerade, smartwater, Costa, fairlife, BodyArmor, Topo Chico and others) and runs the marketing; the bottlers carry most of the plants, trucks and people. Two pieces are not asset-light: Bottling Investments (company-owned bottlers, chiefly in Africa and parts of Asia, 12% of YTD 2026 revenue) and finished-goods businesses in North America (fairlife, BodyArmor, juice) plus Costa retail.

Concentrate sales and unit case volume are the two volume measures: unit cases are what bottlers sell to customers (24 eight-ounce servings per case); concentrate sales are what Coca-Cola ships to bottlers, and they can lead or lag by a quarter.

Where the syrup sits: one unit case, and the money that reaches Coca-Cola

Outermost to innermost, for one standard unit case (192 US fluid ounces, about 5.7 litres):

1. Shopper at a store or vending machine: pays about USD 12 to 16 for a unit case worth of drinks (est., mix of 2 L bottles, cans and single-serve; single-serve is far higher per ounce). Vendor: retailer.
2. Bottler (Coca-Cola Consolidated, Coca-Cola Europacific Partners, Coca-Cola FEMSA, Coca-Cola HBC, Arca Continental and others): sells the case to the retailer for about USD 6 to 9 (est.).
3. The Coca-Cola Company: books about USD 1.40 of revenue per unit case on average (est.: 2025 net revenue USD 47.94B confirmed, divided by about 34B unit cases speculated; the average includes Bottling Investments and finished goods, so pure concentrate is lower).
4. Operating profit to Coca-Cola: about USD 0.45 to 0.50 per case (est.: 1.40 x comparable operating margin of about 33 to 34%).

Closing comparison: one extra point of global unit case volume is worth about USD 0.5B of revenue and about USD 0.16B of operating profit (est.), about 1% of annual sales. Scale is the point: no single customer, product or country moves the result.

The financial starting point

Full years (10-K filed 20 Feb 2026, XBRL, confirmed): revenue USD 45.75B (2023), 47.06B (2024), 47.94B (2025); net income 10.71B, 10.63B, 13.11B; diluted EPS 2.47, 2.46, 3.04; capex 1.85B, 2.06B, 2.11B. Cash from operations was unusually low in 2024 (USD 6.8B) and 2025 (USD 7.4B), which we attribute to the fairlife contingent payment and the IRS tax deposit (prior filings; not re-read this run, est.), so 2026 free cash flow of at least USD 13.0B is a rebound, not a new trend.

Segments, Q3 2026 (USD M, confirmed):

Balance sheet, 2 October 2026 (confirmed): cash and equivalents USD 13,454M, short-term investments 231M, marketable securities 2,910M; loans and notes 73M, current long-term debt 4,923M, long-term debt 36,623M. Net debt about USD 25.0B (est.). Africa bottling assets held for sale USD 6,275M against liabilities USD 3,003M.

Competitors and market share (31 October 2026)

Share: Coca-Cola is commonly put at about 45 to 50% of global carbonated soft drink value and well ahead of PepsiCo outside the US (Euromonitor-type estimates cited in press, speculated; no primary dollar share is disclosed). The company reports value share gains each quarter without a number (confirmed wording, no figure).

Addressable market under two anchors: (a) the company frames its market as non-alcoholic ready-to-drink beverages, with retail value above USD 1T a year (investor materials, speculated figure); (b) Coca-Cola's own revenue of about USD 52B (est. 2026) against that retail value suggests the company keeps roughly 5% of category retail value (est.). Either way, Coca-Cola is the largest single player and growth comes from per-capita consumption in emerging markets and share in zero sugar, water and sports drinks, not from a new market.

Scenarios: 2031 earnings under bust, base and boom (31 October 2026)

Starting point: 2026 comparable EPS USD 3.33 (est.: 2025 comparable EPS USD 3.00 x 1.11, the floor of company guidance). 2027 starts with an about 2% EPS headwind and an about 8% revenue headwind from acquisitions and divestitures (company Q3 note, confirmed).

Arithmetic: 3.33 x 1.04^5 = 4.05; 3.33 x 1.07^5 = 4.67; 3.33 x 1.09^5 = 5.12. Implied EPS CAGR from the 2025 base of 3.00: 6.2% / 9.2% / 11.3% over six years (est.).

The single driver of the boom case is unit case volume above 4% a year with positive mix, which 2026 showed is possible in a World Cup year. The ceiling is not capacity (bottlers carry it) but the multiple: today's 28x already prices most of the boom path.

Valuation: market data and scenario values as of 31 October 2026

Peers (speculated ranges, confirm on the IBKR pull): PepsiCo high-teens forward P/E, Keurig Dr Pepper mid-teens, Monster mid-30s. Coca-Cola's premium over PepsiCo is wide by its own history on press commentary (speculated).

Dilution history: no equity raises; diluted weighted shares 4.339B (2023), 4.320B (2024), 4.313B (2025) (confirmed, 10-K XBRL). Buybacks in 2026 are small (USD 0.9B YTD).

Scenario values per share today (five years at 8%, plus the present value of dividends starting at USD 2.12 a year):

The price sits between base and boom, closer to boom. Fair value meter: mean of Morningstar 80.0, consensus 97.26 and our base 86.0 = USD 87.75, 6.7% below the 94.08 price: red.

Leadership and governance (31 October 2026)

Who runs it

• Henrique Braun, CEO since 31 March 2026 (confirmed, board announcement December 2025). A career insider who joined in 1996: North America, Europe, Latin America (led the Brazil business), Asia; Chief Operating Officer from 1 January 2025. No known controversies.
• James Quincey, CEO 2017 to March 2026, now Executive Chairman (confirmed). Planned succession, not a forced exit.
• John Murphy, President and CFO, also interim head of the North America Operating Unit from 1 August 2026 after Jennifer Mann stepped down on 31 July 2026 (8-K 25 June 2026, confirmed). The largest segment is run on an interim basis by the CFO while its Q3 volume was flat.

Promises vs delivery (2026 guidance path)

Three raises in three quarters. The soft spots: price/mix fell from +2% in Q1 and Q2 to +1% in Q3, and North America volume went to flat.

Revenue-quality test (concentrate company version)

• Organic vs reported: in Q3 organic growth (7%) equals reported (7%); currency +1 point and divestitures minus 1 point offset. But 2026 comparable EPS includes about 3 points of currency tailwind (confirmed), plus about 1 point of acquisition and divestiture headwind, so comparable currency-neutral EPS growth excluding acquisitions and divestitures is guided at least 9% (confirmed, Q3 release).
• Concentrate vs unit cases: Q3 concentrate +7% vs unit cases +5%, so bottlers took more concentrate than they sold through; Q2 was the reverse (concentrate one point behind). YTD the two are close (+6% vs +4%), acceptable, but Q4 may see a concentrate give-back (est.).
• Price/mix: +1% YTD; Latin America +7% is inflation pricing, North America +1%. Growth is volume-led, higher quality but with less pricing cushion.
• Structural: Bottling Investments operating income +261% in Q3 off a low base; the Africa bottler sale (held for sale, assets USD 6.3B) removes about 8% of 2027 revenue but only about 2% of EPS (confirmed), lifting margins mechanically.
• Concentration and geography: no customer above 10% of revenue in past filings (not re-read this run). North America is 40% of YTD revenue (est. from segment table).

Insider register (July to September 2026, Form 4 and 144, confirmed from EDGAR)

All are option exercises with same-day sales near all-time highs; no open-market buys found. Total about USD 80M+ in two months (est.), immaterial against a USD 405B market cap, but one-directional.

Largest holder: Berkshire Hathaway, 400M shares (about 9.3%), unchanged for decades (13F, speculated: not re-read this run).

Red flags

• IRS transfer-pricing dispute: Tax Court decisions for the IRS (2020, 2023), company appealing; potential liability in the high single-digit billions of dollars including interest (prior 10-K disclosures, speculated amount, not re-read this run). Largest single balance-sheet risk.
• fairlife ransomware (8-K 16 Jul 2026, confirmed): US production suspended, then mostly resumed; management guided no material H2 impact. Watch Q4.
• Costa: bought for GBP 3.9B in 2018; a sale at about GBP 2B was explored, shelved early 2026, revived per Semafor on 8 Oct 2026 (speculated).
• North America leadership interim since August 2026.
• No restatements, no auditor change, no delayed reports and no short reports found.

Next hard test

Q4 and full-year 2026 results with 2027 guidance, expected about 9 to 10 February 2027 (est.; Q4 2025 was reported 10 February 2026). Pass marks: 2026 comparable EPS growth at or above 11% (about USD 3.33), free cash flow at or above USD 13.0B, the Africa bottling sale closed, and 2027 currency-neutral EPS growth guided at 7% or better after the about 2% divestiture headwind. A 2027 guide below 6% breaks our base case.

Fact audit (31 October 2026)

Self-check by the author agent; a separate fork audit is still owed per the template.

Fact-audit notes (independent audit, 31 October 2026)

Second-pass check against SEC XBRL company facts (captured 31 Oct 2026), the Q3 2026 release exhibit 99.1 (27 Oct 2026) and the Yahoo chart API (30 Oct 2026 close).

IBKR ratings

Fair value update (31 Oct 2026, after this capture): the average shown on the price chart is now USD 87.99, 6.5% below the 2026-10-30 close of 94.08 (red). Inputs: Morningstar fair value (Q3 2026 note, wide moat, raise of mid-single digits flagged) 80.0 (2026-10-27); LSEG (Refinitiv) consensus target, 27 analysts, via IBKR Mobile 97.98 (2026-10-31); The Claude Trader base case 86.0 (2026-10-31). Where an earlier section quotes a different average, this one is current.

Captured 2026-10-31 15:40 to 15:42 Europe/Luxembourg from IBKR Mobile (read-only). Full table with screenshots: ibkr/ibkr_ko_2026-10-31.md.

Latest IBKR news: - 31 Oct 2026 Motley Fool: if a bear market is coming, these stocks could be the smartest to own (MDT, KO) - 31 Oct 2026 Motley Fool: Coca-Cola and Procter & Gamble up this month, which Dow dividend stock is the better buy - 31 Oct 2026 Seeking Alpha: seven of eight consumer staples beat EPS in Q3 earnings week

What is still open

1. Confirm the Morningstar fair value and star rating at source (IBKR pull).
2. LSEG and TipRanks consensus targets to replace the MarketBeat consensus in the fair-value average.
3. Re-read the 2025 10-K for the IRS tax case amount and the 2024 to 2025 operating cash flow explanation.
4. Confirm the Q4 2026 earnings date once the company announces it.
5. Total 2025 unit case volume (used in the per-case ladder) from the 10-K.

Information dates and future updates

Company figures as of the Q3 2026 release (27 October 2026) and 10-Q (28 October 2026); price as of the 30 October 2026 close; vendor targets as of 30 October 2026; all captured 31 October 2026. Review after the Q4 2026 release.

Sources

• Q3 2026 earnings release, 27 Oct 2026: https://investors.coca-colacompany.com/filings-reports/all-sec-filings/content/0001628280-26-067403/a2026q3earningsreleaseex-9.htm
• Q3 2026 10-Q, 28 Oct 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/21344/000162828026067844/ko-20261002.htm
• SEC XBRL company facts: https://data.sec.gov/api/xbrl/companyfacts/CIK0000021344.json
• Q2 2026 release, 28 Jul 2026: https://investors.coca-colacompany.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1168/coca-cola-reports-second-quarter-2026-results-and-raises-full-year-guidance
• Q1 2026 release, 28 Apr 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/0000021344/000162828026027723/a2026q1earningsreleaseex-9.htm
• 8-K fairlife incident, 16 Jul 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/21344/000162828026048466/ko-20260716.htm
• 8-K North America leadership, 25 Jun 2026: https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/21344/000155278126000366/e26287_ko-8k.htm
• CEO change: https://www.marketscreener.com/news/the-coca-cola-company-announces-ceo-changes-effective-march-31-2026-ce7d50dadc88f624
• Morningstar Q3 2026 note: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/after-earnings-is-coca-cola-stock-buy-sell-or-fairly-valued-8
• MarketBeat forecast: https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/KO/forecast/
• Costa sale (Semafor, 8 Oct 2026): https://www.semafor.com/article/10/08/2026/coca-cola-looks-to-sell-costa-coffee
• Prices: https://query1.finance.yahoo.com/v8/finance/chart/KO?range=3mo&interval=1d