# Apple: a record iPhone cycle, a new CEO, and a price that already assumes both continue

Research date: **31 October 2026**. Company: **Apple Inc.** (Cupertino, CA). Listing: **Nasdaq, AAPL**. ISIN: **US0378331005**. CIK 320193. Reporting currency: **USD** (US GAAP, fiscal year ends on the last Saturday of September). Latest financial period reviewed: **fiscal Q3 2026, quarter ended 27 June 2026** (Form 8-K exhibit 99.1, results released 30 July 2026). Material announcements reviewed through **31 October 2026**. Capture window 31 October 2026, 14:30 to 15:10 Europe/Luxembourg.

Tags used throughout: **confirmed** = company filing, release or primary source; **est.** = our arithmetic from confirmed inputs; **speculated** = sell-side, press or third-party estimate. Every figure carries the source's own date; market data carries the capture time as well. This is research, not a recommendation.

## Investment memo: our current view

**Quality compounder priced above all three fair-value anchors, including the sell-side consensus target.** Apple is in its strongest product cycle in years. Fiscal Q3 2026 revenue was **USD 109.4B, up 16%** (confirmed, 30 Jul 2026), iPhone grew **22%** to USD 54.3B and Services grew **12%** to USD 30.7B. Over the first nine months of fiscal 2026 revenue is up **16%** and Greater China up **30%** (confirmed). Gross margin hit **50.1%** in Q3, but about 2 points of that came from tariff refunds (confirmed), and management guided the September quarter to 47 to 48% with "significantly greater" supply constraints and rising memory costs (Q3 call, 30 Jul 2026, as reported).

At **USD 344.63** (close 30 Oct 2026, Yahoo chart API, captured 31 Oct 15:00) Apple is worth about **USD 5.03T**, with net cash of only **USD 62.2B** (est. from the confirmed balance sheet of 27 Jun 2026). That is **39x** fiscal 2026 consensus EPS of USD 8.84 and **36x** fiscal 2027 (S&P Global consensus via StockAnalysis, 30 Oct 2026, speculated). Our scenario values per share today are **USD 149 bust, USD 251 base, USD 366 boom** (8% discount, fiscal 2030 exit). The price sits between our base and boom cases: the market pays for above-trend iPhone growth and a premium multiple held for four more years.

The three fair-value anchors disagree: Morningstar **USD 285** (wide moat; 3 stars at the July note, current star rating not verified; cut from 290 after the Q3 report, approx. 31 Jul 2026), S&P Global consensus target **USD 332.39** (43 analysts, Buy, 30 Oct 2026) and our base case **USD 250.6**. Their mean is **USD 289.33**, so average fair value sits **16.0% below** the price (equivalently the price is 19.1% above it, est.; meter red).

Leadership changed on **1 September 2026**: John Ternus (hardware engineering, at Apple since 2001) became CEO and Tim Cook became executive chairman (announced 20 Apr 2026). The fiscal Q4 report on **2 November 2026** is the first under Ternus and the next hard test.

## Thesis underwriting

| Underwriting question | The bullish proposition | What needs to be established | Our current assessment |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| **iPhone cycle** | iPhone 17 and 18 drive a multi-year upgrade wave | Growth above 10% into fiscal 2027 | 9M FY26 iPhone +22% (confirmed); Q4 guided mid-teens; comparisons get hard from Q1 FY27 |
| **Services** | Services compound at low teens with ~76% margin | Growth despite App Store and search remedies | Q3 +12%, 9M services gross margin 76.3% (est. from confirmed lines) |
| **Margin** | Gross margin stays near 47 to 48% | Memory costs and tariffs | Q3 50.1% helped by ~2 pts tariff refunds; guide 47 to 48% |
| **Legal** | Google search payments (reportedly ~USD 20B a year) survive | Outcome of the DOJ cross-appeal in US v. Google | Sept 2025 remedy kept non-exclusive payments; DOJ cross-appealed Feb 2026 (press, speculated amount) |
| **Capital return** | Buybacks shrink the share count 2 to 3% a year | Cash flow above returns | 9M FY26 buybacks USD 62.1B, dividends USD 11.8B, operating cash flow USD 117.0B (confirmed) |
| **Succession** | Ternus keeps execution intact | Product cadence and supply under the new CEO | Planned transition, Cook stays as executive chairman |
| **Risk/reward** | Bust USD 149 vs boom USD 366 | Price 344.63 needs near-boom delivery | Downside to base about 27% (est.) |

## Listing and timestamps

| Field | Value | Tag | Source date · captured |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Company | Apple Inc., Cupertino, California | confirmed | 10-K FY2025 · 31 Oct 14:40 |
| Listing | Nasdaq Global Select, AAPL, USD; CIK 320193; ISIN US0378331005 | confirmed | EDGAR · 31 Oct 14:40 |
| Fiscal year | Ends last Saturday of September; FY26 Q4 ended 26 Sep 2026 | confirmed | 10-Q Q3 FY26 · 31 Oct 14:45 |
| Latest period reviewed | Quarter ended 27 Jun 2026 | confirmed | 8-K ex. 99.1, 30 Jul 2026 · 31 Oct 14:45 |
| Shares outstanding | ~14.59B | confirmed (market data) | StockAnalysis, 31 Oct 2026 · 31 Oct 14:55 |
| Price | USD 344.63, close 30 Oct 2026 | confirmed (market data) | Yahoo chart API · 31 Oct 15:00 |
| 52-week range | USD 243.42 to 351.73 | confirmed (market data) | Yahoo chart API meta · 31 Oct 15:00 |
| Market cap / EV | USD 5.03T / 4.97T | est. (price x shares, less net cash) | StockAnalysis, 30 Oct close · 31 Oct 14:55 |
| Next report | FY26 Q4 results, Mon 2 Nov 2026, call 14:00 PT | confirmed (company notice as reported) | MacTrast / MacDailyNews, 7 Oct 2026 · 31 Oct 14:50 |

## What the business actually sells

Five product lines and a services layer on top of them. Nine-month fiscal 2026 net sales (confirmed, 8-K 30 Jul 2026; growth and shares est.):

| Line | 9M FY26 USD B | 9M FY25 USD B | Growth | Share of sales |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| iPhone | 196.5 | 160.6 | +22.4% | 53.9% |
| Services | 91.7 | 80.4 | +14.1% | 25.2% |
| Wearables, Home, Accessories | 27.3 | 26.7 | +2.3% | 7.5% |
| Mac | 27.1 | 25.0 | +8.6% | 7.4% |
| iPad | 21.7 | 21.1 | +3.0% | 6.0% |
| **Total** | **364.4** | **313.7** | **+16.2%** | 100% |

Profit is concentrated in services: 9M FY26 services gross profit was USD 70.0B on USD 91.7B of sales (**76.3%** margin), against USD 108.8B on USD 272.6B for products (**39.9%**). Services are a quarter of sales but **39%** of gross profit (est. from confirmed lines).

By geography (9M FY26, confirmed): Americas USD 149.4B (+11%), Europe USD 95.6B (+16%), Greater China USD 64.8B (+30%), Japan USD 24.4B (+10%), Rest of Asia Pacific USD 30.2B (+19%).

## Where the iPhone sits: from the user's wallet to Apple's profit

Cutaway, outermost to innermost: the active-device base (Apple last disclosed **over 2.35B active devices** in January 2025, confirmed; later figure not checked) contains the iPhone (about **USD 900 to 1,000** average selling price, speculated, Apple stopped reporting units in 2018), which contains Apple silicon and memory (memory is the cost line management flagged, confirmed qualitatively), with the services toll on top (App Store commission 15 to 30%, confirmed policy; Google's default-search payments, reportedly about **USD 20B** a year, speculated from trial testimony and press).

Money ladder on trailing twelve months to 27 June 2026 (est.: 9M FY26 confirmed plus Q4 FY25 derived as FY25 10-K minus 9M FY25):

| Step | USD B, TTM | Tag |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Net sales | ~466.8 | est. (364.4 + 102.5) |
| Gross profit | ~227.1 | est. (178.8 + 48.3) |
| Operating income | ~154.9 | est. (122.4 + 32.4) |
| Net income | ~129.0 | est. (101.5 + 27.5) |
| Returned to holders (buybacks + dividends) | ~97.9 | est. (73.9 + 24.0) |
| Google search payments, inside Services | ~20 | speculated |

The Google default-search payment alone is roughly **15% of Apple's TTM net income** if it drops straight to profit (est., speculated input), which is why the DOJ cross-appeal is a valuation item, not a footnote.

## The financial starting point

| Quarter (FY26 Q3) | USD M | Prior year | Change | Tag |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Net sales | 109,417 | 94,036 | +16.4% | confirmed |
| iPhone | 54,252 | 44,582 | +21.7% | confirmed |
| Mac | 10,352 | 8,046 | +28.7% | confirmed |
| iPad | 6,191 | 6,581 | -5.9% | confirmed |
| Wearables, Home, Acc. | 7,883 | 7,404 | +6.5% | confirmed |
| Services | 30,739 | 27,423 | +12.1% | confirmed |
| Gross margin | 54,770 (50.1%) | 43,718 (46.5%) | +3.6 pts | confirmed (incl. ~2 pts tariff refunds) |
| Operating income | 35,695 | 28,202 | +26.6% | confirmed |
| Net income | 29,789 | 23,434 | +27.1% | confirmed |
| Diluted EPS (USD) | 2.02 | 1.57 | +28.7% | confirmed |
| Diluted shares (M) | 14,715 | 14,948 | -1.6% | confirmed |

Balance sheet, 27 June 2026 (confirmed): cash USD 39.5B, current securities USD 22.9B, non-current securities USD 84.1B (total USD 146.5B); term debt USD 82.3B and commercial paper USD 2.0B (total USD 84.3B). **Net cash USD 62.2B** (est.). Quarterly dividend USD 0.27 (confirmed).

Guidance for the September quarter (Q3 call 30 Jul 2026, as reported): revenue **+9 to 11%** (USD 111.7 to 113.7B on the USD 102.5B base), iPhone up mid-teens, gross margin **47 to 48%** including about 1 point of tariff refunds.

## Competitors and share (31 October 2026)

| Company | Role | Overlap with Apple | Note | Tag |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Samsung | Android phones, memory supplier | Smartphones, tablets, wearables; also a DRAM/NAND supplier | Rival and supplier; memory pricing hits Apple margin | confirmed role |
| Huawei, Xiaomi, vivo, OPPO | Chinese Android brands | China smartphones | Apple's 9M FY26 Greater China +30% suggests share regained | speculated share |
| Alphabet (Google) | Android, Pixel, search | OS, services; pays Apple for search default | Partner and rival at once | confirmed |
| Microsoft, PC OEMs | Windows PCs | Mac | Mac +29% in Q3 | confirmed growth |
| Meta | Headsets, glasses | Vision and wearables | Wearables line +2% in 9M | confirmed growth |

Share: third-party trackers (IDC, Counterpoint, Canalys) place Apple at roughly a fifth of global smartphone units and over half of industry smartphone profit (speculated, not re-verified on 31 Oct 2026). For Apple the TAM anchor that matters is the installed base rather than units: services revenue per active device is what compounds. Two anchors for that base: 2.35B active devices (confirmed, Jan 2025) gives about USD 50 of services per device per year on 9M FY26 annualised services of USD 122B (est.); a narrower anchor of ~1.4B active iPhones (speculated) gives about USD 87.

## Scenarios: fiscal 2030 under bust, base and boom (31 October 2026)

Starting point: fiscal 2026 consensus revenue **USD 477.6B** and EPS **USD 8.84** (S&P Global via StockAnalysis, 30 Oct 2026, speculated). Our Q4-implied FY26 revenue is 364.4 + 112.7 (guide midpoint) = **USD 477.1B** (est.), in line. The share count falls 2.5% a year to **13.18B** in all cases (est.; the last year's pace was 1.6%).

| Case | Revenue CAGR FY26 to FY30 | FY30 revenue USD B | Net margin | FY30 net income USD B | FY30 EPS | Exit P/E | FY30 price | Value today |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Bust | 3% | 537.5 | 24% | 129.0 | 9.78 | 20x | 195.7 | **148.7** |
| Base | 6% | 603.0 | 27% | 162.8 | 12.35 | 27x | 333.4 | **250.6** |
| Boom | 9% | 674.2 | 29% | 195.5 | 14.83 | 33x | 489.3 | **366.2** |

Value today = FY30 price / 1.08^3.9, plus about USD 3.7 for the present value of four years of dividends (est.). Bust is a post-supercycle iPhone decline plus the loss of Google search payments (about 3 points of net margin). Base keeps services at low double digits and iPhone near flat after FY27. Boom needs a second upgrade wave (foldable iPhone, on-device AI) and today's multiple held; its single driver is iPhone units per year. Consensus FY27 revenue of USD 524.8B (+9.9%) sits on the boom path for the first year. The capacity ceiling is supply: memory and advanced-node allocation, which management named as constraints.

## Valuation: market data and scenario values as of 31 October 2026

| Metric | Value | Tag |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Price | USD 344.63 (30 Oct close) | confirmed market data |
| Market cap | USD 5.03T | est. |
| Net cash | USD 62.2B (USD 4.26 per share) | est. from confirmed balance sheet |
| Enterprise value | USD 4.97T | est. |
| EV / FY26E sales | 10.4x | est. |
| P/E trailing (TTM EPS ~8.73) | 39.5x | est. |
| P/E FY26E / FY27E | 39.0x / 36.1x | est. on consensus |
| Short interest | 0.90% of shares | market data, StockAnalysis 31 Oct |

Peers (speculated, approximate, not re-verified): Microsoft and Alphabet trade on lower forward P/Es than Apple while growing earnings faster; Samsung trades far lower. Apple's premium rests on capital return and the services annuity.

Dilution history: none. Apple shrinks: diluted shares fell from 14,948M to 14,715M in a year (confirmed); stock-based compensation is more than offset by buybacks.

### Scenario values per share and fair-value anchors

| Anchor | Value | Date | Tag |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Bust / base / boom (ours) | USD 148.7 / 250.6 / 366.2 | 31 Oct 2026 | est. |
| Morningstar fair value, wide moat (3 stars at the July note) | USD 285 | approx. 31 Jul 2026 | speculated (third party) |
| S&P Global consensus target, 43 analysts, Buy | USD 332.39 (median 337.50, range 245 to 405) | 30 Oct 2026 | speculated |
| **Average of Morningstar, consensus, our base** | **USD 289.33** | 31 Oct 2026 | est. |
| Price vs average | average 16.0% below price (price 19.1% above average), meter red | 30 Oct close | est. |

## Leadership and governance (31 October 2026)

### Who runs it

- **John Ternus, CEO since 1 September 2026** (announced 20 Apr 2026, confirmed via press of the Apple release). Hired, not founder; joined Apple in 2001, SVP Hardware Engineering from 2021, led iPhone, iPad, Mac and AirPods hardware generations. Joined the board on 1 September 2026.
- **Tim Cook, executive chairman** (CEO August 2011 to 31 August 2026). A planned succession approved unanimously by the board; the predecessor was not pushed out.
- **Arthur Levinson** moved from non-executive chairman to lead independent director on 1 September 2026.
- **Kevan Parekh, CFO** since January 2025 (succeeded Luca Maestri).

### Promises versus delivery, last four reports

| Report | Promise for the next quarter | What came next | Tag |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| FY25 Q4 (30 Oct 2025) | Strong December quarter on iPhone 17 | FY26 Q1 a record; Morningstar raised FV to 260 | direction confirmed, exact figures not re-read |
| FY26 Q1 (Jan 2026) | Continued growth, memory cost headwind | Q2 beat; Morningstar raised FV to 270 | speculated detail |
| FY26 Q2 (30 Apr 2026) | June-quarter growth | Q3 revenue +16%, record June quarter | confirmed |
| FY26 Q3 (30 Jul 2026) | Sept quarter +9 to 11%, GM 47 to 48%, supply tight | Reported 2 Nov 2026 | pending |

### Revenue quality

No NRE split applies. The quality tests for Apple: (1) services share of gross profit, 39% in 9M FY26 (est.); (2) one-off gross margin, about 2 points of tariff refunds in Q3 (confirmed); (3) concentration: none among end customers, but one partner, Google, pays an estimated USD 20B a year that sits almost entirely in profit (speculated); (4) geography: Greater China is 17.8% of 9M sales and grew fastest (est.), and it is also the most political.

### Insider register (press reports of Form 4 filings, captured 31 Oct 14:55)

| Date | Insider | Action | Size | Plan | Tag |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| 2 Oct 2026 | Tim Cook, executive chairman | Sale after RSU vesting on 1 Oct | 191,753 shares, ~USD 63.8M at ~330.66 to 334.50 | 10b5-1 (adoption reported as Feb or 28 May 2026) | speculated (press of Form 4) |
| 2 Oct 2026 | Tim Cook | Shares withheld for tax | 199,038 shares | n/a | speculated |
| 2 Oct 2026 | Tim Cook | Gift | 26,325 shares | n/a | speculated |
| 2 Oct 2026 | John Ternus, CEO | Sale | 25,412 shares, ~USD 8.5M | 10b5-1 adopted 21 May 2026 | speculated |
| 2 Oct 2026 | Deirdre O'Brien, SVP | Sale | 46,389 shares, ~USD 15.5M | not stated | speculated (press of Form 4) |

Pattern: routine post-vesting sales under trading plans, no open-market buys; insiders own 0.06% (StockAnalysis, 31 Oct). Cook keeps about 3.24M shares through his trust (press, speculated).

### Red flags

- No restatements, no auditor change (Ernst & Young), no late filings found.
- Legal: the US v. Google cross-appeal (filed Feb 2026) could end search payments; DOJ v. Apple monopolisation case pending; EU Digital Markets Act enforcement continuing (status not re-verified).
- Q3 gross margin includes tariff refunds that will not repeat.
- Net cash keeps shrinking as buybacks exceed free cash flow.

### Next dated hard test

**Fiscal Q4 2026 results, Monday 2 November 2026, after the close (call 14:00 PT).** Pass marks: revenue within USD 111.7 to 113.7B, iPhone up mid-teens, gross margin 47 to 48%, December-quarter guidance that holds high-single-digit growth despite memory costs, and the first commentary from Ternus as CEO.

## IBKR ratings

**Fair value update (31 Oct 2026, after this capture):** the average shown on the price chart is now **USD 289.34**, 16% below the 2026-10-30 close of 344.63 (red). Inputs: Morningstar fair value via IBKR Mobile (Analyst Equity Report; 2 stars, moat Wide, uncertainty Medium) 290.0 (2026-09-09); LSEG (Refinitiv) consensus target, 43 analysts, via IBKR Mobile 327.42 (2026-10-31); The Claude Trader base case 250.6 (2026-10-31). Where an earlier section quotes a different average, this one is current.

Captured 2026-10-31 15:25 to 15:27 Europe/Luxembourg from IBKR Mobile (read-only). Full table with screenshots: `ibkr/ibkr_aapl_2026-10-31.md`.

| Field | Value | IBKR as-of | Capture (Lux) | Screenshot |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quote (last, change, day range) | 345.10 USD, -3.81 (-1.09%), day range 334.35 to 349.19, frozen data (30 Oct session) | 30 Oct 2026 close (frozen, market closed) | 2026-10-31T15:25:47+01:00 | 20261031T152547+0100_quote.png |
| Morningstar rating | 2 stars | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-31T15:26:35+01:00 | 20261031T152635+0100_morningstar_1.png |
| Morningstar economic moat | Wide | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-31T15:26:35+01:00 | 20261031T152635+0100_morningstar_1.png |
| Morningstar fair value | 290.00 USD | 2026-09-09 | 2026-10-31T15:26:35+01:00 | 20261031T152635+0100_morningstar_1.png |
| Morningstar uncertainty | Medium | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-31T15:26:35+01:00 | 20261031T152635+0100_morningstar_1.png |
| Morningstar capital allocation | Exemplary | 2026-09-11 | 2026-10-31T15:26:35+01:00 | 20261031T152635+0100_morningstar_1.png |
| Morningstar report type | Analyst Equity Report |  | 2026-10-31T15:26:35+01:00 | 20261031T152635+0100_morningstar_1.png |
| LSEG (Refinitiv) consensus | Buy, 43 ratings (25 Buy/Outperform, 14 Hold, 4 Sell/Underperform); mean target 327.42 (-6.16%); high 405.00 (+16.08%), median 330.00 (-5.42%), low 240.00 (-31.21%); 2 months ago: Buy 10, Outperform 19, Hold 14, Underperform 3, Sell 1, mean 2.28; current mean 2.33 (current count column showed 0 in app) | 2026-10-31 screen | 2026-10-31T15:26:57+01:00 | 20261031T152657+0100_lseg_1.png |
| TipRanks consensus | Moderate Buy, 27 ratings last 3 months (13 Buy, 10 Hold, 4 Sell); average target 337.77 (-1.99%), high 400, low 245 | 2026-10-31 screen, last 3 months | 2026-10-31T15:27:17+01:00 | 20261031T152717+0100_tipranks_1.png |
| Ownership | Institutions 66.34%, strategic entities 1.65%, others 32.01% | 2026-10-31 screen | 2026-10-31T15:26:04+01:00 | 20261031T152604+0100_company_4.png |
| Other | Morningstar bulls/bears dated 9 Sep 2026. LSEG action log: UBS Neutral 296 (30 Oct), Bernstein SocGen Outperform 370 (29 Oct), Monness Buy 355 (28 Oct), Evercore ISI Outperform 380 (27 Oct), Loop Capital downgraded to Hold 330 (20 Oct) | as listed | 2026-10-31T15:26:35+01:00 | 20261031T152635+0100_morningstar_1.png |

Latest IBKR news:
- 31 Oct 2026 Seeking Alpha: notable tech headlines for the week, Intel, Microsoft, Sandisk
- 31 Oct 2026 Barron's via Dow Jones: Alphabet stock got hammered, not selling
- 31 Oct 2026 IBD via Dow Jones: Dow futures, stock market sells off as Apple, Palantir, midterm elections loom
- 31 Oct 2026 Motley Fool: Down 33.3% this year, is Netflix the best value stock (general feed)

## Fact-audit notes

| Claim | Check | Result |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Q3 FY26 revenue 109.4B, iPhone 54.3B, Services 30.7B | 8-K ex. 99.1 | confirmed |
| GM 50.1% incl. ~2 pts tariff refunds | 8-K ex. 99.1 | confirmed |
| Ternus CEO from 1 Sep 2026 | Press of Apple release 20 Apr 2026 | confirmed (secondary) |
| Q4 report 2 Nov 2026 | Press of Apple IR notice | confirmed (secondary) |
| Q4 FY25 base figures used in TTM | FY25 10-K minus 9M FY25 | est., FY25 10-K not re-read in this run |
| Google pays ~USD 20B a year | Press, trial testimony | speculated |
| Morningstar 285 | Morningstar article, date approximate | speculated (third party) |

### Adversarial audit, 31 Oct 2026 (separate auditor, captured 31 Oct 2026 16:00 Europe/Luxembourg)

All Q3 FY26 and 9M figures (segments, geography, gross profit split, operating and net income, EPS, diluted shares, balance sheet, cash flow, dividend, ~2 pt tariff refund) re-read in the 8-K exhibit 99.1 of 30 Jul 2026: confirmed. Consensus (332.39, median 337.50, 245 to 405, 43 analysts; FY26 revenue 477.64B, EPS 8.84; FY27 revenue 524.75B, EPS 9.55) re-read on StockAnalysis, as of 30 Oct 2026: confirmed. Yahoo meta 52-week range and 30 Oct close: confirmed. Scenario arithmetic, market cap, EV, multiples and FAIR_VALUE average recomputed: correct. Q4 FY25 TTM inputs (102.5B sales, 27.5B net income) match the FY25 10-K figures as reported by press; other Q4 FY25 lines reasonable, not re-read.

| Claim | Was | Now | Source |
| --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Memo headline | priced above every anchor "except the sell-side" | above all three anchors; consensus 332.39 is below the 344.63 price | StockAnalysis, 30 Oct 2026 |
| Price vs average | "price 16.0% above average" | average 16.0% below price; price 19.1% above average (est.) | arithmetic on FAIR_VALUE.json |
| Morningstar stars | 3 stars stated as current | 3 stars at the July note; current star rating not verified (stars move with price) | Morningstar search snippets, Jul 2026 |
| O'Brien sale | size in USD only, month only | 46,389 shares, 2 Oct 2026 | press of Form 4 (MacDailyNews, iClarified, Oct 2026) |
| Form 4 sales (Cook, Ternus, O'Brien) | press only | still press only; primary Form 4 not opened (unverifiable here) | n/a |
| Q4 FY26 report date | press | 2 Nov 2026, results 13:30 PT, call 14:00 PT, consistent across 9to5Mac, MacDailyNews, iClarified | press of Apple IR, Oct 2026 |

## What is still open

- Exact Morningstar note date for USD 285 and any October update.
- Primary Form 4 read for the October insider sales.
- Current active-device count and any Google payment disclosure.
- LSEG and TipRanks consensus from the IBKR capture, to replace the S&P Global consensus in the average.

## Information dates and future updates

Every section is dated 31 October 2026. Review after the 2 November 2026 report: update the financial starting point, guidance, the scenario base year and FAIR_VALUE.json.