{ "schema": "theclaudetrader.research_packet.v1", "generated_at": "2026-10-31T18:13:01+00:00", "snapshot_date": "2026-10-31", "about": { "site": "The Claude Trader", "what_this_is": "Evidence-first research record built from SEC XBRL, SEC Form 4 and exchange prices. Deterministic rule scores with every input linked to its source. No recommendations. fair_value_model is a labelled model estimate from SEC filings, not a price target or recommendation (method: /fair-value).", "publishes": "Facts and their provenance only; no holdings, targets, estimates or recommendations.", "how_to_answer": [ "State the snapshot date and each score's data_as_of.", "Quote scores with their status: ok = complete; partial / insufficient = a test was excluded because an input was absent or older than 550 days. Repeat each warning beside the number it affects; a 'stale' warning means the input was used but is older than 120 days (price: 7 days).", "Cite the source URL for any number you repeat.", "Say what is missing; never present holdings or targets as this site's (it has none).", "If asked for a shortlist or portfolio: build it from the user's horizon, risk, benchmark, exclusions and limits; cite inputs, explain inclusion and thesis risks; label weights as your synthesis, distinct from these deterministic scores; no promised outperformance or invented expected returns." ] }, "company": { "ticker": "HWM", "name": "Howmet Aerospace Inc.", "legal_name": "Howmet Aerospace Inc.", "cik": "0000004281", "exchange": "NYSE", "industry": "Rolling Drawing & Extruding Of Nonferrous Metals", "sic": "3350", "fiscal_year_end": "1231", "is_financial": false, "is_utility": false }, "price": { "value": 199.22, "as_of": "2026-10-30", "source": "Alpaca Market Data (consolidated SIP daily bar)", "url": "https://docs.alpaca.markets/docs/historical-stock-data-1" }, "market_cap": { "value": 79221922817.8, "as_of": "2026-10-30", "unit": "USD", "meaning": "price on the price date x latest reported point-in-time shares (see inputs.share_count_as_of)", "warning": null, "unavailable_reason": null, "inputs": { "traded_price": { "value": 199.22, "as_of": "2026-10-30", "unit": "USD per traded unit (share or ADS)", "source": "Alpaca Market Data (consolidated SIP daily bar)", "url": "https://docs.alpaca.markets/docs/historical-stock-data-1" }, "sec_shares_outstanding": { "value": 397660490.0, "unit": "underlying shares", "concept": "SEC cover page 10-Q 0000004281-26-000036 (397,660,490 shares (single class on cover)); filing document https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000036/hwm-20260930.htm", "period_end": "2026-10-26", "accession": "0000004281-26-000036", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000036/R1.htm" }, "depositary_ratio": { "value": 1.0, "unit": "underlying shares per traded unit", "status": "domestic", "source": "10-K filer; SEC shares are the traded units", "evidence_url": null, "evidence_form": null, "evidence_filed": null, "body_snippet": null }, "formula": "market_value = traded_price (price date) / depositary_ratio x latest point-in-time SEC shares outstanding (share-count date shown; from the filing cover page, summed across share classes only where the issuer filing verifies the classes are economically equivalent (rule + evidence URL in the source text), else withheld; priced at the primary listed class, so where other classes trade at a different price the value is an approximation; restated only for issuer-verified splits after the count date); weighted-average share counts are never used", "split_adjustment": null, "share_count_as_of": "2026-10-26", "share_count_age_days_at_price_date": 4, "warning": null, "computed": "199.22 (price 2026-10-30) / 1 x 397,660,490 (shares at 2026-10-26) = 79,221,922,818" } }, "scores": { "graham": { "score": 36.8, "status": "ok", "complete": true, "passes_all": false, "summary": "Graham Defensive: 37 of 100 (ok). Adequate size: 8.25 revenue $B \u2192 5.0/5; Current ratio: 1.82 \u2192 12.3/15; Long-term debt vs working capital: 2.15 LTD / WC \u2192 0.0/15; Positive earnings each of 10 years: 8 of 10 \u2192 12.0/15; Dividends every year for 20 years: 10 of 20 \u2192 7.5/15; EPS growth, 3-yr avg now vs 10 yrs ago: -0.87 -> 2.78 \u2192 0.0/10; P/E on 3-year average EPS: 71.6 \u2192 0.0/15; P/B <= 1.5, or P/E x P/B <= 22.5: P/B 13.82, product 989.3 \u2192 0.0/10", "data_as_of": "2025-12-31", "history": [ "2013", "2025" ], "price_as_of": "2026-10-30", "coverage": null, "verification": { "verified": 10, "mismatch": 4, "unverified": 21, "not_cross_checked": 2 }, "warnings": [ "stale (warning, input still used): current-period inputs older than 120 days: Revenue, current_assets, current_liabilities, lt_debt, equity; inputs older than 550 days are excluded and make the test insufficient", "4 input(s) disagree between SEC and the secondary source; see inputs" ], "components": [ { "test": "1", "name": "Adequate size", "value": 8.25, "unit": "revenue $B", "threshold": ">= 1", "points": 5.0, "max": 5 }, { "test": "2a", "name": "Current ratio", "value": 1.82, "threshold": ">= 2.0", "points": 12.3, "max": 15 }, { "test": "2b", "name": "Long-term debt vs working capital", "value": 2.15, "unit": "LTD / WC", "threshold": "<= 1.0", "points": 0.0, "max": 15, "note": null }, { "test": "3", "name": "Positive earnings each of 10 years", "value": "8 of 10", "threshold": "10 of 10", "points": 12.0, "max": 15 }, { "test": "4", "name": "Dividends every year for 20 years", "value": "10 of 20", "threshold": "20 of 20", "points": 7.5, "max": 15, "missing_years": [ 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 ], "cross_check": { "verified_years": [ 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022, 2023, 2024, 2025 ], "mismatch_years": [ 2013, 2014, 2015 ], "unverified_years": [ 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 ] }, "note": "3 year(s) where Yahoo and XBRL disagree" }, { "test": "5", "name": "EPS growth, 3-yr avg now vs 10 yrs ago", "value": "-0.87 -> 2.78", "threshold": ">= +33%", "points": 0.0, "max": 10, "note": "base period average not positive" }, { "test": "6", "name": "P/E on 3-year average EPS", "value": 71.6, "threshold": "<= 15", "points": 0.0, "max": 15, "note": null }, { "test": "7", "name": "P/B <= 1.5, or P/E x P/B <= 22.5", "value": "P/B 13.82, product 989.3", "threshold": "<= 1.5 or <= 22.5", "points": 0.0, "max": 10 } ], "rules_url": "https://theclaudetrader.com/p/graham" }, "magic_formula": { "score": 34.0, "status": "ok", "complete": true, "passes_all": null, "summary": "Magic Formula: 34 of 100 (ok). Earnings yield (EBIT/EV): 3.04 % (rank 149); Return on capital (EBIT/(NWC+PPE)): 53.04 % (rank 81); Combined rank: 230 of 200", "data_as_of": "2025-12-31", "history": [ null, null ], "price_as_of": "2026-10-30", "coverage": null, "verification": null, "warnings": [ "stale (warning, input still used): current-period inputs older than 120 days: operating_income_q, operating_income_q, current_assets, current_liabilities, cash, ppe_net, debt_incl_current, debt_short; inputs older than 550 days are excluded and make the test insufficient" ], "components": [ { "name": "Earnings yield (EBIT/EV)", "value": 3.04, "unit": "%", "rank": 149, "note": "EBIT trailing twelve months; EV = market cap + debt (3,500,000,000) - cash" }, { "name": "Return on capital (EBIT/(NWC+PPE))", "value": 53.04, "unit": "%", "rank": 81, "note": "net working capital 1,887,000,000 used as reported" }, { "name": "Combined rank", "value": 230, "of": 200 } ], "rules_url": "https://theclaudetrader.com/p/magic_formula" }, "momentum": { "score": 43.6, "status": "ok", "complete": true, "passes_all": null, "summary": "Momentum: 44 of 100 (ok). 12-1 month return: 12.3 % \u2192 28.7/50; 6 month return: -18.0 % \u2192 2.2/20; Price / 52-week high: 0.681 \u2192 10.2/15; Volatility penalty (60d annualised): 44.0 % \u2192 2.6/15", "data_as_of": "2026-10-30", "history": [ null, null ], "price_as_of": "2026-10-30", "coverage": null, "verification": null, "warnings": [], "components": [ { "name": "12-1 month return", "value": 12.3, "unit": "%", "percentile": 57.3, "points": 28.7, "max": 50 }, { "name": "6 month return", "value": -18.0, "unit": "%", "percentile": 10.9, "points": 2.2, "max": 20 }, { "name": "Price / 52-week high", "value": 0.681, "points": 10.2, "max": 15 }, { "name": "Volatility penalty (60d annualised)", "value": 44.0, "unit": "%", "points": 2.6, "max": 15 } ], "rules_url": "https://theclaudetrader.com/p/momentum" }, "insider": { "score": 0.0, "status": "no open-market transactions in window", "complete": true, "passes_all": null, "summary": "Insider: 0 of 100 (no open-market transactions in window). Open-market buy value / market cap (percentile among buyers): 0.0 bp \u2192 0.0/35; Distinct buyers: 0 \u2192 0.0/25; Buyer seniority: 0.0 \u2192 0.0/20; Recency (half-life 30d): 0.0 \u2192 0.0/10; Sales penalty (excludes 10b5-1 plan sales): 0.0 bp \u2192 -0.0/0", "data_as_of": "2026-10-30", "history": [ null, null ], "price_as_of": null, "coverage": { "window_start": "2026-08-02", "through": "2026-10-30", "missing_days": 1, "note": "Form 4 data loaded through 2026-10-30" }, "verification": null, "warnings": [], "components": [ { "name": "Open-market buy value / market cap (percentile among buyers)", "value": 0.0, "unit": "bp", "points": 0.0, "max": 35 }, { "name": "Distinct buyers", "value": 0, "points": 0.0, "max": 25 }, { "name": "Buyer seniority", "value": 0.0, "points": 0.0, "max": 20 }, { "name": "Recency (half-life 30d)", "value": 0.0, "points": 0.0, "max": 10 }, { "name": "Sales penalty (excludes 10b5-1 plan sales)", "value": 0.0, "unit": "bp", "points": -0.0, "max": 0 } ], "rules_url": "https://theclaudetrader.com/p/insider" }, "buffett": { "score": 70.1, "status": "ok", "complete": true, "passes_all": false, "summary": "Buffett Quality: 70 of 100 (ok). Average return on equity (net income / year-end equity): 15.2% over 8 yrs \u2192 25.0/25; Profitable every year: 8 of 10 \u2192 12.0/15; Net income growth, 3-yr average now vs start of window: base or latest average not positive \u2192 0.0/10; Borrowings / 3-yr average earnings (years to repay): 3.1 years \u2192 15.0/15; Operating margin, 5-yr average: 19.2% \u2192 9.4/10; Free cash flow / net income, 5-yr (operating cash flow minus capex): 0.93 \u2192 8.7/10; Owner-earnings yield (3-yr avg free cash flow / market cap): 1.3% \u2192 0.0/15", "data_as_of": "2025-12-31", "history": [ "2016", "2025" ], "price_as_of": "2026-10-30", "coverage": null, "verification": { "verified": 0, "mismatch": 0, "unverified": 48, "not_cross_checked": 2 }, "warnings": [ "stale (warning, input still used): current-period inputs older than 120 days: debt_incl_current, debt_short; inputs older than 550 days are excluded and make the test insufficient" ], "components": [ { "test": "1", "name": "Average return on equity (net income / year-end equity)", "value": "15.2% over 8 yrs", "threshold": ">= 15%", "points": 25.0, "max": 25 }, { "test": "2", "name": "Profitable every year", "value": "8 of 10", "threshold": "all years", "points": 12.0, "max": 15 }, { "test": "3", "name": "Net income growth, 3-yr average now vs start of window", "value": "base or latest average not positive", "threshold": ">= +10%", "points": 0.0, "max": 10, "note": "growth rate undefined" }, { "test": "4", "name": "Borrowings / 3-yr average earnings (years to repay)", "value": 3.1, "threshold": "<= 4", "points": 15.0, "max": 15, "unit": "years", "note": "LongTermDebt (incl. current maturities) + short-term borrowings" }, { "test": "5", "name": "Operating margin, 5-yr average", "value": "19.2%", "threshold": ">= 20%", "points": 9.4, "max": 10 }, { "test": "6", "name": "Free cash flow / net income, 5-yr (operating cash flow minus capex)", "value": "0.93", "threshold": ">= 1.0", "points": 8.7, "max": 10 }, { "test": "7", "name": "Owner-earnings yield (3-yr avg free cash flow / market cap)", "value": "1.3%", "threshold": ">= 7%", "points": 0.0, "max": 15 } ], "rules_url": "https://theclaudetrader.com/p/buffett" }, "lynch": { "score": 19.4, "status": "partial: 1, 2, 5", "complete": false, "passes_all": false, "summary": "Lynch GARP: 19 of 100 (partial: 1, 2, 5). PEG: P/E divided by 5-yr EPS growth (in % points): insufficient (needs diluted EPS for the last fiscal year and five years earlier); EPS growth, 5-yr compound rate: insufficient (needs diluted EPS for the last fiscal year and five years earlier); P/E on latest annual EPS: 53.7 \u2192 0.0/10; Borrowings / equity: 0.61 \u2192 13.3/15; Years of the last 5 in which EPS rose: insufficient (needs six consecutive fiscal years of diluted EPS); Net cash (cash minus borrowings) / market cap: -3.7% \u2192 6.1/10", "data_as_of": "2025-12-31", "history": [ "2025", "2025" ], "price_as_of": "2026-10-30", "coverage": null, "verification": { "verified": 0, "mismatch": 0, "unverified": 5, "not_cross_checked": 1 }, "warnings": [ "partial score: tests 1, 2, 5 could not be computed; not comparable with complete scores", "stale (warning, input still used): current-period inputs older than 120 days: debt_incl_current, debt_short, equity, cash; inputs older than 550 days are excluded and make the test insufficient" ], "components": [ { "test": "1", "name": "PEG: P/E divided by 5-yr EPS growth (in % points)", "value": null, "threshold": "<= 1.0", "points": null, "max": 30, "note": "needs diluted EPS for the last fiscal year and five years earlier" }, { "test": "2", "name": "EPS growth, 5-yr compound rate", "value": null, "threshold": "12% to 35% a year", "points": null, "max": 20, "note": "needs diluted EPS for the last fiscal year and five years earlier" }, { "test": "3", "name": "P/E on latest annual EPS", "value": 53.7, "threshold": "<= 25", "points": 0.0, "max": 10 }, { "test": "4", "name": "Borrowings / equity", "value": 0.61, "threshold": "<= 0.5", "points": 13.3, "max": 15, "note": "LongTermDebt (incl. current maturities) + short-term borrowings" }, { "test": "5", "name": "Years of the last 5 in which EPS rose", "value": null, "threshold": "5 of 5", "points": null, "max": 15, "note": "needs six consecutive fiscal years of diluted EPS" }, { "test": "6", "name": "Net cash (cash minus borrowings) / market cap", "value": "-3.7%", "threshold": ">= +10%", "points": 6.1, "max": 10 } ], "rules_url": "https://theclaudetrader.com/p/lynch" }, "graham_enterprising": { "score": 44.7, "status": "partial: 5", "complete": false, "passes_all": false, "summary": "Graham Enterprising: 45 of 100 (partial: 5). Current ratio: 1.82 \u2192 15.0/15; Borrowings vs working capital: 1.85 x \u2192 4.7/15; No earnings deficit in the last 5 years: 5 of 5 profitable \u2192 15.0/15; Pays a current dividend: yes \u2192 10.0/10; EPS higher than five years earlier: insufficient (needs diluted EPS for the last fiscal year and five years earlier); Price / book value per share: 13.82 \u2192 0.0/20; Price / net current asset value per share (current assets minus all liabilities): None \u2192 0.0/15", "data_as_of": "2025-12-31", "history": [ "2021", "2025" ], "price_as_of": "2026-10-30", "coverage": null, "verification": { "verified": 0, "mismatch": 0, "unverified": 10, "not_cross_checked": 3 }, "warnings": [ "partial score: tests 5 could not be computed; not comparable with complete scores", "stale (warning, input still used): current-period inputs older than 120 days: current_assets, current_liabilities, debt_incl_current, debt_short, equity; inputs older than 550 days are excluded and make the test insufficient" ], "components": [ { "test": "1", "name": "Current ratio", "value": 1.82, "threshold": ">= 1.5", "points": 15.0, "max": 15 }, { "test": "2", "name": "Borrowings vs working capital", "value": 1.85, "threshold": "<= 1.1x", "points": 4.7, "max": 15, "unit": "x", "note": "LongTermDebt (incl. current maturities) + short-term borrowings" }, { "test": "3", "name": "No earnings deficit in the last 5 years", "value": "5 of 5 profitable", "threshold": "5 of 5", "points": 15.0, "max": 15 }, { "test": "4", "name": "Pays a current dividend", "value": "yes", "threshold": "yes", "points": 10.0, "max": 10 }, { "test": "5", "name": "EPS higher than five years earlier", "value": null, "threshold": "higher", "points": null, "max": 10, "note": "needs diluted EPS for the last fiscal year and five years earlier" }, { "test": "6", "name": "Price / book value per share", "value": 13.82, "threshold": "<= 1.2", "points": 0.0, "max": 20, "note": "book value used because intangibles are not separated in the dataset (Graham uses net tangible assets)" }, { "test": "7", "name": "Price / net current asset value per share (current assets minus all liabilities)", "value": null, "threshold": "<= 0.67", "points": 0.0, "max": 15, "note": "net current asset value not positive" } ], "rules_url": "https://theclaudetrader.com/p/graham_enterprising" }, "piotroski": { "score": 88.9, "status": "ok", "complete": true, "passes_all": false, "summary": "Piotroski F-Score: 89 of 100 (ok). Return on assets is positive: 13.5% \u2192 11.11111111111111/11.11111111111111; Operating cash flow is positive: 1,884M \u2192 11.11111111111111/11.11111111111111; Return on assets improved on the prior year: 11.0% -> 13.5% \u2192 11.11111111111111/11.11111111111111; Operating cash flow exceeds net income (accruals): 1,884M vs 1,508M \u2192 11.11111111111111/11.11111111111111; Long-term debt / assets fell: 31.5% -> 25.6% \u2192 11.11111111111111/11.11111111111111; Current ratio improved: 2.17 -> 2.13 \u2192 0.0/11.11111111111111; No new shares issued (share count did not rise): 402M -> 398M \u2192 11.11111111111111/11.11111111111111; Operating margin improved (stand-in for gross margin, which the dataset does not carry): 22.0% -> 24.8% \u2192 11.11111111111111/11.11111111111111; Asset turnover (revenue / assets) improved: 0.71 -> 0.74 \u2192 11.11111111111111/11.11111111111111", "data_as_of": null, "history": [ "2024", "2026" ], "price_as_of": null, "coverage": null, "verification": { "verified": 0, "mismatch": 0, "unverified": 27, "not_cross_checked": 0 }, "warnings": [], "components": [ { "test": "1", "name": "Return on assets is positive", "value": "13.5%", "threshold": "pass = 1", "points": 11.11111111111111, "max": 11.11111111111111 }, { "test": "2", "name": "Operating cash flow is positive", "value": "1,884M", "threshold": "pass = 1", "points": 11.11111111111111, "max": 11.11111111111111 }, { "test": "3", "name": "Return on assets improved on the prior year", "value": "11.0% -> 13.5%", "threshold": "pass = 1", "points": 11.11111111111111, "max": 11.11111111111111 }, { "test": "4", "name": "Operating cash flow exceeds net income (accruals)", "value": "1,884M vs 1,508M", "threshold": "pass = 1", "points": 11.11111111111111, "max": 11.11111111111111 }, { "test": "5", "name": "Long-term debt / assets fell", "value": "31.5% -> 25.6%", "threshold": "pass = 1", "points": 11.11111111111111, "max": 11.11111111111111 }, { "test": "6", "name": "Current ratio improved", "value": "2.17 -> 2.13", "threshold": "pass = 1", "points": 0.0, "max": 11.11111111111111 }, { "test": "7", "name": "No new shares issued (share count did not rise)", "value": "402M -> 398M", "threshold": "pass = 1", "points": 11.11111111111111, "max": 11.11111111111111 }, { "test": "8", "name": "Operating margin improved (stand-in for gross margin, which the dataset does not carry)", "value": "22.0% -> 24.8%", "threshold": "pass = 1", "points": 11.11111111111111, "max": 11.11111111111111 }, { "test": "9", "name": "Asset turnover (revenue / assets) improved", "value": "0.71 -> 0.74", "threshold": "pass = 1", "points": 11.11111111111111, "max": 11.11111111111111 } ], "rules_url": "https://theclaudetrader.com/p/piotroski" } }, "inputs_by_philosophy": { "graham": [ { "name": "Price (close, per traded unit)", "value": 199.22, "kind": "price", "source": "Alpaca Market Data (consolidated SIP daily bar)", "url": "https://docs.alpaca.markets/docs/historical-stock-data-1", "period": "2026-10-30", "age_days": 1, "stale": false }, { "name": "Revenue", "value": 8252000000.0, "kind": "current", "source": "SEC XBRL RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000012/", "period": "2025-12-31", "accession": "0000004281-26-000012", "fact_id": 25857760, "verified": "unverified", "age_days": 304, "stale": true }, { "name": "current_assets", "value": 4193000000.0, "kind": "current", "source": "SEC XBRL AssetsCurrent", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000025/", "period": "2026-06-30", "accession": "0000004281-26-000025", "fact_id": 25907766, "verified": "unverified", "age_days": 123, "stale": true }, { "name": "current_liabilities", "value": 2306000000.0, "kind": "current", "source": "SEC XBRL LiabilitiesCurrent", "url": "https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/4281/000000428126000025/", "period": "2026-06-30", "accession": "0000004281-26-000025", "fact_id": 25934983, 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"industry": "Rolling Drawing & Extruding Of Nonferrous Metals", "scored_peers": 1, "rank": null, "median": null }, "buffett": { "industry": "Rolling Drawing & Extruding Of Nonferrous Metals", "scored_peers": 1, "rank": null, "median": null }, "lynch": { "industry": "Rolling Drawing & Extruding Of Nonferrous Metals", "scored_peers": 0, "rank": null, "median": null }, "graham_enterprising": { "industry": "Rolling Drawing & Extruding Of Nonferrous Metals", "scored_peers": 0, "rank": null, "median": null }, "piotroski": { "industry": "Rolling Drawing & Extruding Of Nonferrous Metals", "scored_peers": 1, "rank": null, "median": null } }, "dossier": null, "external_views_link_only": { "morningstar": "https://www.morningstar.com/search?query=HWM", "finviz": "https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=HWM", "stockanalysis": "https://stockanalysis.com/stocks/hwm/", "seeking_alpha": "https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/HWM", "openinsider": "http://openinsider.com/search?q=HWM", "google_news": "https://news.google.com/rss/search?q=HWM+stock" }, "limits": [ "Lynch GARP: partial, missing tests 1, 2, 5", "Graham Enterprising: partial, missing tests 5", "News is not collected for this ticker; use the SEC 8-K and press-release links below" ], "machine_readable": { "stock_json": "https://theclaudetrader.com/s/HWM.json", "stock_md": "https://theclaudetrader.com/s/HWM.md", "packet": "https://theclaudetrader.com/r/HWM.json", "grid": "https://theclaudetrader.com/grid.json", "openapi": "https://theclaudetrader.com/openapi.json", "index": "https://theclaudetrader.com/llms.txt" }, "cite_as": "The Claude Trader snapshot 2026-10-31, https://theclaudetrader.com/s/HWM; data from SEC EDGAR XBRL and market prices (Alpaca Market Data, Yahoo Finance) to 2026-10-30.", "disclaimer": "Scores are deterministic rule outputs from public filings. fair_value_model is a labelled model estimate from the same filings (method at /fair-value), not an opinion or recommendation." }