Crypto
Chart-pattern reads for crypto from NotebookLM notebooks grounded on Thomas N. Bulkowski's Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, with the same frozen records, date slider and scoring as the stock predictions. Horizon here: 1 to 6 months. Crypto trades every day, so a "daily close" is the 00:00 UTC close. The book's statistics come from US stocks; on crypto they are a rough guide, not a measured rate.
| Coin | Call and pattern | Pattern target | Cancelled by | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC-USD Bitcoin USD 78,248 USD (2026-11-01) | No active call Double top Confirmed, then cancelled | 77,778 -0.6% | A daily close at or above 82571 | made 2026-11-02 data to 2026-11-01 |
| NEAR-USD NEAR Protocol USD 4.43 USD (2026-10-31) | ▼ Down Head-and-shoulders top Confirmed | 3 -29.8% | A daily high at or above 5.963 | made 2026-10-28 data to 2026-10-27 |
Bitcoin: 1 to 6 month plan
BTC closed 78,248 USD on 2026-11-01. The frozen forecast 20261102T071028Z-910b23 (data to 2026-11-01, close 78,248) reads a Double Top (Adam & Eve), confirmed: twin peaks near 87.4k (21 Sep) and 87.1k (2 Oct), valley 82,571. Full chart, date slider and scoring: BTC-USD pattern page.
The rule that decides it
Down case while daily closes stay below 82,571; since the forecast the journal scores it as in force.
A daily close at or above 82,571 cancels the double top; the notebook's up case then points to 87,146 / 87,364.
Down targets (no dates)
77,778 → 73,149 → 57,748
The first (77,778, the full-height measure) was already touched on 30 Oct (low 76,190). Next: 73,149 (200-day average), then 57,748 (the July low).
Book statistics quoted
- Average decline (bull market, down breakout): 18% (N=296 double top patterns analyzed by Bulkowski; Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 2nd ed., Chapter 18, p. 291)
- Break-even failure rate (bull market): 14% (N=296 double top patterns analyzed by Bulkowski; Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 2nd ed., Chapter 18, p. 291)
- Percentage meeting half-height price target: 69% (N=296 double top patterns analyzed by Bulkowski; Encyclopedia of Chart Patterns, 2nd ed., Chapter 18, p. 291, 303)
US-stock samples; quoted by the notebook, not checked against the page.
Month by month
| Month 1 (Nov) | Below 82,571 the down case holds (a second break, see above). Watch 76,190 (the 30 Oct low): a daily close under it opens 73,149. A close at or above 82,571 ends the down read; act on closes, not intraday wicks. |
| Months 1 to 2 (to mid-Dec) | Timing from the book (as quoted in the 1 Nov macro answer): ultimate lows after double tops come on average about 6 weeks after the breakout, which puts a likely turn in 5 to 15 Dec. That answer's plan: short at 77,771, stop 88,500, target 68,000, and close by 12 Dec or on any 20% rally from the low, whichever comes first. |
| Months 2 to 4 (Dec to Feb) | Bulkowski calls a trend changed after a 20% rise from the low. Until that happens, rallies below 82,571 are pullbacks inside the down move. The macro answer expects the low in the 65k to 70k range and a recovery toward 87k to 92k by early February once the turn is in; that is the notebook's view, not a measured rate. |
| Months 4 to 6 (Feb to May) | The frozen run's dated path: 2026-12 75,500, 2027-01 73,200, 2027-02 74,500, 2027-03 76,800, 2027-04 79,200, 2027-05 81,500. It drifts back above the forecast close while the down case is in force, which the validator flags as a contradiction, so read it as a rough sketch only. A fresh run after the low is the better guide. |
Validator notes on this run: most_likely_path ends at 81500.0 (above the origin 78248.4531) but the down case is marked in force: the forecast contradicts itself; most_likely_path 2027-04-01 79200.0 is on the wrong side of the origin for the down case in force; most_likely_path 2027-05-01 81500.0 is on the wrong side of the origin for the down case in force
How the notebook has done on BTC (blind replay)
A notebook with the full book saw the BTC daily chart one week at a time from 17 May to 1 Nov 2026 (24 weeks, no future data) and set standing orders each week. Simulated on Binance BTC perp hourly bars, $10,000, 1x, fees and funding: 7 closed trades, 3 winners, +168 USD closed, plus an open short marked at +227 USD on 1 Nov (about +4.0% in total) while BTC itself moved about +0.4%. Earlier, the January 2026 bearish calls of another BTC notebook made money and its calls after 6 February lost; a mechanical pattern scanner over 2024 to 2026 crypto data showed no edge. Small sample: a guide to the notebook's habits, not proof of skill.
| Entry | Side | Entry | Exit | Exit reason | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-18 | short | 77,430 | 74,500 | target | +3.8% |
| 2026-05-25 | long | 77,500 | 74,200 | stop | -4.4% |
| 2026-06-02 | short | 69,400 | 60,800 | target | +12.3% |
| 2026-06-14 | long | 65,000 | 58,000 | stop | -11.0% |
| 2026-07-01 | short | 58,000 | 65,000 | stop | -11.9% |
| 2026-07-14 | long | 65,000 | 74,500 | target | +13.9% |
| 2026-08-24 | long | 79,500 | 79,500 | stop | -1.0% |
| 2026-10-24 | short | 79,500 | 77,771 | still open (marked to market) | +2.3% |
Pattern reads and plans, not advice and not trades. Levels come from frozen notebook runs and are never edited after the fact; outcomes are scored on each coin's page and journal. Book statistics are historical frequencies from Bulkowski's samples of US stocks, not probabilities for any coin. Independent of and not endorsed by Mr. Bulkowski.